With the 2025 U.S. fall harvest winding to a close, traders and producers will turn their attention to USDA after two months of crop size speculation.

USDA will release its November Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports at 11 a.m. CST on Friday.

CORN

Although it feels as though the corn market has been gaining bullish momentum through the fall, Tuesday's close on the December futures contract of $4.32 marks just a 2-cent gain from the close on Sept. 12, the day of the last Crop Production and WASDE reports from USDA. Through the government-shutdown-driven data blackout in October, rumors were rampant that 2025 corn yields had fallen drastically below pre-harvest expectations, though high acreage still points to a record-setting supply in 2025.

The average of analysts' estimates (according to 17 firms surveyed by Dow Jones) for Friday for the 2025 corn yield is 183.5 bushels per acre (bpa), ranging from 182 to 186 bpa. This would be a drop of 3.2 bpa from the September estimate, although undoubtedly larger than some studies through harvest have found. See DTN Crops Editor Jason Jenkins' late-October column here as one example: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Analysts expect harvested corn area to remain estimated at 90 million acres across the U.S., the largest since 1933, if true, bringing production to an average trade guess of 16.528 billion bushels (bb). Analyst estimates ranged from 16.38 bb to 16.75 bb, all over 1 bb larger than the previous U.S. record set in 2023.

Strong demand ideas have certainly been the bullish argument to the corn market through the fall. Export inspections were one of the few reports released as scheduled through the government shutdown, and those have shown a stellar pace through the 2025-26 marketing year thus far at 66% ahead of 2024 as of Nov. 6. However, as impressive as export demand has been, it is difficult at this point to see the demand picture stretch further beyond the record (by a wide margin) 16.055 bb forecast in total in September. The feed and residual estimate alone of 6.1 bb would be the largest in 20 years. The average trade estimate for 2025-26 U.S. corn ending stocks of 2.130 bb, up 20 bb from September, implies a demand cut, though I personally wouldn't be surprised if USDA leaves this side unchanged, opting to catch up on the supply side forecasts this time around.

In the world corn market, it is still very early to estimate South American crops, with Argentina's crop only around a third planted. And the vast majority of Brazil's crop won't be planted until early spring of 2026. That being said, this time of year, other export competitors such as Ukraine are always interesting to keep an eye on. Analysts expect a slight uptick in old-crop carry in stocks as well, which could be the result of higher production in Brazil as USDA has lagged behind local estimates. That is expected to translate to a touch higher 2025-26 stocks as well, indicating that most are expecting a fairly quiet report in terms of world changes.

SOYBEANS

Since the last round of USDA data in September, the soybean market has been on a roller coaster, with escalating tensions between China and the U.S. initially sending prices back toward calendar-year lows. Then, the trade truce announcement, which included soybean purchase promises by China, sent January futures to 16-month highs over the second half of October.

For Friday's reports, traders will undoubtedly be interested to see if USDA expresses more optimism for the 2025-26 export program. But with actual inspected shipments running 42% behind the same point in 2024 as of Nov. 6, it is far from a sure thing that we'll suddenly see a rampant rise in the forecast. Unless of course, sales data (which hasn't been published through the shutdown), shows that China is indeed making good on its promise to pick up purchases from the U.S. That being said, the demand side may very well remain unchanged in Friday's update, with the resumption of weekly sales reports the more pertinent data for the market to start receiving, in my opinion.

The production and supply side of the balance sheet will, of course, be an area of focus for traders on Friday. The average estimate of analysts surveyed by Dow Jones calls for a soybean yield of 53 bpa, half a bushel less than the September report, but still a record for the U.S. However, if true, this would cut production by roughly 45 million bushels (mb) from the previous estimate. We also know from the September stocks report released just prior to the onset of the government shutdown that the carry in stocks can be expected to fall 14 mb from the September WASDE as well. All in all, if demand is unchanged, this would point to a carryout of 242 mb, the lowest in a decade if true. The Dow Jones survey is a little bit less optimistic, with the average trade guess landing at 292 mb. That is still a decline from September's estimate of 300 mb, but implying a cut in demand is expected if the yield truly declines by half a bushel per harvested acre.

On the world side of things, it should be a quiet report. Of course, South America will garner some interest, but it is still planting season for Brazil's next crop and already estimated by USDA to be a record. China's fundamentals will be interesting to see given the most recent trade agreement. But overall, I expect most of the world chances to come as a direct result of changes on the U.S. balance sheet, simply given the time of year.

WHEAT

Wheat futures have just begun to show life over the past few weeks after what has, for the most part, been a dismal 2025 for price action. December Kansas City futures hit contract lows in mid-October before rallying to three-month highs by early November. But they have since hit technical resistance, which has stalled the rally over the past week.

Friday's report should be a fairly quiet event for wheat markets, as most of the fireworks should be known following the Sept. 30 Grain Stocks and Small Grains Summary reports from USDA. In the Small Grains report, recall that USDA increased 2025 U.S. wheat production to 1.985 bb, up 58 mb from the September WASDE. Meanwhile, Sept. 1 wheat stocks were the largest in five years. For Friday, analysts expect U.S. wheat stocks to be forecast at 862 mb to end the 2025-26 marketing year. That would be up from 844 mb in the September WASDE and in line with higher beginning supplies as well as implications from the Sept. 1 stocks estimate. Demand for U.S. wheat has been very strong through the marketing year thus far. Export inspections are up 19% from 2024 as of early November, with reported domestic milling demand good as well. The average of analysts' estimates for Friday's wheat stocks would imply expectations are for demand to remain large in USDA forecasts.

In the world wheat market, it should come as little surprise that analysts expect to see an uptick in world supplies and stocks. Most major world producers and exporters have seen increases in local estimates through the late summer and early fall, notably in Russia, Argentina and Australia. Not to mention the increases in U.S. production as well. With harvests underway in the Southern Hemisphere for Australia and Argentina, USDA will have yield reports to inform its forecasts. As always, the world demand situation will be important to watch for changes. But if independent and local government estimates are any indication, the expectation for Friday's USDA update should reaffirm impressive wheat production across the globe in 2025.

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Join us for DTN's post-report webinar at 12:30 p.m. CST, on Friday, Nov. 14, as we discuss USDA's new estimates in light of recent market events. Questions are welcome and registrants will receive a replay link for viewing at their convenience. Register here for Friday's November WASDE report webinar: https://www.dtn.com/….

Rhett Montgomery can be reached at rhett.montgomery@dtn.com

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